TCFD suggests the development of at least three distinct and plausible climate change scenarios, including one adhering to the Paris Agreement, to test the resiliency of the organisation in different climate change futures.
Lendlease has adopted scenario planning as a means of holistically testing strategic resilience across environmental and social sustainability outcomes, in line with our Sustainability Framework. To test resiliency we have created our 2050 Future Scenarios, using a range of environmental, social, technological, economic and policy indicators.
Our scenarios are based on peer reviewed scientific and academic research, tested with a broad range of stakeholders and designed to be plausible but challenging.
Resignation (more than 4 Degrees) scenario represents the worse of climate change of the four scenarios and will be used to test the physical risks across our operations and supply chain.
Polarisation (3-4 Degrees) scenario represents a constant but incremental approach to climate change mitigation and will be used to test the longer term societal risks of climate change impacts.
Paris Alignment (2-3 Degrees) scenario considers delayed action on climate change, resulting in a late uncontrolled rapid decarbonisation pathway and will be used to test transitional risks of uncontrolled decarbonisation.
Transformation (well below 2 Degrees) scenario represents a societal driven controlled and early rapid decarbonisation pathway where global emissions peak in 2020 and are close to zero in 2040.
Indicators of Change